Soooo, last week wasn't exactly my best effort. I went for broke and got exactly what I deserved. I was in the neighborhood on a few things, but I'm not a 7th grader on his first date, and almost isn't a cool story I get to tell my little horndog friends.
Week 7 is now upon us, and it's hard to believe that come Monday we'll be half way through the college football season, but luckily the best is yet to come. So let's hope the same is true for my picks this week.
It hasn't been a great run for me this year, but admittedly some of the picks I have made have been absolutely off the wall. However, the one positive I've had all year have been my picks against the spread. In picks that have specifically mentioned covering a spread, I'm actually 6-2 on the year.
So if I make a pick against the spread, get your money in while the gettin's good. With that being said, here are this week's guarantees.
1. Florida covers as a surprising two-point favorite on the road at Auburn.
The Barners opened as one-point favorites over the Gators, but the line has now moved to two points in the Gators favor. I know that I have preached the motivational powers of being the home underdog in a game that appears to be a push, but I like Florida here. Gator-haters have found a way to write off Florida because of back-to-back blowout losses, but HELLO, they played the two best teams in the country. In case you haven't noticed, Bama and LSU have absolutely steamrolled everyone else they've played as well, so I don't see why everyone is down on UF.
2. Tennessee runs for over 50 yards against LSU. That's right, I said 50.
If you haven't paid much attention to either Tennessee's run game or LSU's run defense, you'd probably assume that this was the dumbest guarantee ever. It seems like a lock, but Tennessee is averaging a vomit-inducing -14.5 yards per game on the ground in SEC play, and no that isn't a misplaced hyphen, that is indeed a negative sign. LSU, on the other hand, has given up less than 70 yards a game on the ground despite facing high-powered rushing attacks like Oregon, Florida, and Mississippi State. Now that you've seen the numbers, my sure thing is starting to look more like a shot in the dark, isn't it? However, my reasoning is simple. LSU simply won't expect UT to run the football effectively, and who can blame them, but as LSU prepares to slow down Tennessee's passing attack I think the Vols might be able to sneak in a couple of big runs early before LSU adjusts and eventually extinguishes any existance of a UT run game. I just hope LSU's tackle for loss yardage doesn't come back to bite me.
3. Georgia continues the "let's make Vanderbilt remember who they are" parade.
Vanderbilt opened up the year with a 3-0 start. Yay Vandy! However, things haven't exactly been so peachy for the Commodores since. South Carolina tried to gift wrap the game yet Vanderbilt still found a way to lose by 18, and Bama delivered a good old fashioned stoning last week. This week should be more of the same, as Vanderbilt makes one more stop on the "L" train on their way to a 2-6 conference record. Good news is, the 'Dores still have Army, Kentucky and Wake Forest on their schedule so they'll have a shot at bowl eligibility, because as everyone knows, there is nothing like Birmingham, AL in the second week of January.
4. South Carolina covers the three points they are giving to Mississippi State on the road.
Somehow this line only opened up at five points in favor of South Carolina, and yet the line has managed to drop to just three points. Not since the last time I saw a Matthew Lesko infomercial (aka crazy question mark guy) have I seen anything shout "free money" quite so loudly. South Carolina rebounded from their disappointing loss to Auburn with a drubbing of everyone's favorite doormat Kentucky, and Mississippi State has been Sylvester Croom bad since the LSU game. Easiest play of the week.
5. Ole Miss gets caught looking ahead two weeks to Kentucky, proceeds to get flogged by Alabama.
We're all looking forward to the game of the year in the SEC two weeks from now, but unfortunately we've got games to play before then. Of course, by game of the year I mean Kentucky/Ole Miss. Sure if you like good football you probably thought I was talking about LSU/Bama, but for those of you who enjoy comedy, ESPN3 will be the place to be on Saturday the 29th. In the meantime, Bama lays the lumber to Ole Miss and my beloved Vols, and Ole Miss bites the bullet against Bama and Auburn.
6. Joker Phillips thanks his lucky stars that Kentucky has a bye week to prepare for Jacksonville State.
Kentucky isn't very good. Seriously, they're potentially lose to Jacksonville State bad, but luckily they've got a bye week to prepare for J-State. You may consider this a throwaway guarantee, and you'd be considering right, but it wouldn't be a "Pick Six" without making sure everyone realizes just how bad Kentucky is.